According to the majority of the economists surveyed by Bloomberg, at the moment the Russian currency is overvalued, the agency reported. In total, between 24 and 29 of April, Bloomberg polled 27 analysts. The majority of them, more precisely 17, said about the excessive strengthening of the Russian ruble. Another nine of them considered that the Russian currency is traded close to fundamentally reasonable values, and one expert called the ruble undervalued.
After a strong fall at the end of 2014, in the beginning of this year the ruble strengthened: the official dollar exchange rate against the Russian ruble since the beginning of the year fell by 29% (from 69.66 rubles to 49.68 rubles). The price of Brent oil in the same period increased approximately 15%, topping at the maximum of $ 64 per barrel.
However, the dollar-ruble exchange rates stayed below 50 only for one day, April 21, after which the dollar jumped high. The first deputy chairman – Ksenia Yudaeva said then that the trend of a strengthening ruble has ended at that moment.
On April 24, the Russian Finance Minister – Anton Siluanov appreciated the ruble as too strong. He said that there was something that was to be expected: the volume of international reserves stabilized, the ruble was stable at first, but now it began to strengthen, and it went too far. He also noted that to stabilize the financial market, the Bank of Russia has taken a number of measures, such as cutting the key rate twice, and it can make it again at the end of April.
The British publication – The Economist, warned that there is no need to confuse the strong ruble with a recovery of the Russian economy. The phenomenon of the strong ruble is a mystery, as the Russian economy is in a worse situation than it was in December last year. The publication also comes with arguments and shows the lists of adverse factors, including inflation of 16.9%, which is 5.6% higher than last year, and the rapid decline of real wages. More than this, the foreign exchange reserves of the Central Bank of Russia reduced by $ 30 billion this year. The IMF believes that the Russian economy will fell 4% in 2015, and this is actually an optimistic forecast.
Based on the figures and statistics of Russian economy, the analysts expect a negative trend for the Russian ruble from now on.
On Friday the USD/RUB was 51.8 and the EUR/RUB showed 58.1.