The inflation in Russia in annual terms will remain high until August 2015. The July increase in tariffs will increase the rate by 0.1 - 0.2 percentage points, according to a new forecast of the Economic Development Ministry.
"In the second quarter, inflation will continue to decline due to high demand constraints and the strengthening of the ruble in the predicted values - the average price increase will not exceed 0.6 - 0.7 % (2.3 % in the first quarter) and in the case of a stronger ruble, it can be lower, "- believes the agency.
In July, due to another indexation which regulates the tariffs of infrastructure sector, growth in utility tariffs by 8.7 percent in inflation will make 0.5 percentage points (in 2014 an increase in utility tariffs by 3.8 percent in inflation added 0.3 percentage points) and inflation will rise slightly - by 0.1 - 0.2 percentage points for the year.
In the second half of the year it is expected to significantly slowdown the inflation. The main factors are a significant contraction in effective demand due to lower business activity, anticipated stabilization or a strengthening of the ruble, increased import of food products, and market saturation.
By the end of 2015, inflation will decline to 11.6 - 11.9 % (11.9 % - base case, 11.6 % - option 2 at a sturdy rate of the ruble). The average annual inflation will not exceed 15.5 - 15.7 % of the previous year (in the previous version of the forecast - 15.8 %).
With low consumer demand is expected that inflation will slow down in 2016 almost doubled - up to 6.5 - 7.5 %.
By 2018, under the conditions of a strengthening ruble, the inflation will fall to 5 %.