The crisis in the Russian economy will last 4-5 years, and the peak of the problems will be in the years 2017-2018, when most likely the Reserve Fund supplies will be finished. By this time the patience of ordinary citizens will also end, experts say. The effect of the returning Crimea to the Russian side along with other political actions is short-term in nature.
The decline in industrial production in Russia got accelerated. In April, Russia's industry decreased by 4.5% compared with April 2014. This is the maximum drop in the index of industrial production from October 2009, the Federal State Statistics Service said on Wednesday. For comparison, in March, the industry has lost only 0.6% (compared to March 2014).
Taking into account the exclusion of seasonal and calendar factors, industrial production in April fell by 1.6% after a growth of 0.4% in March, a decline of 0.8% in February and 2.0% in January.
"The fall in industrial production was more extensive than expected. In many ways, it is explained by the decline in the manufacturing industry, as well as the strengthening of the ruble which we saw in the first quarter", said the chief economist at Deutche Bank in Russia - Yaroslav Lissovolik.
The fall in industrial production was the first negative news for the Russian market over the past few weeks. The stabilization of the Russian currency at the level of 50 rubles for $ 1, and also the improvement of the news flow allowed the Russian officials in the past days to begin with very cautious optimism to talk about the future prospects of the domestic economy.
Thus, the Minister of Economic Development Alexei Ulyukayev said that the economic downturn this year may be lower than the expected level of 2.8%.
All the key macroeconomic indicators are in red: GDP (-1.9%), trade (-6.7%), investments in fixed assets (-6%), real wages (-8.3%). Exports fell by a quarter, and imports by nearly 38%. One of the alarming problems, in the opinion of the director of the Institute of Strategic Analysis FBK - Igor Nikolaev, is the decline in goods turnover - 1.7%, in which the worst dynamics showed the sector of transportation of construction materials - 21.8% for the quarter. At the same time, inflation has exceeded 16% in annual terms.
The updated consensus forecast for GDP, which was presented on Tuesday by Development Center of the Higher School of Economics, suggests the fall of the index by 3.6% in 2015. This is slightly better than the previous estimates (4%). "Nevertheless, the forecast for the whole 2015 as a whole is considerably worse than the preliminary results of the first quarter", is stated in the material of the Development Center.